Fowler, H.J. and Archer, D.R. 2005. Hydro-climatological variability in the Upper Indus Basin and implications for water resources. In: Wagener, T. et al. (Eds.) Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change – Impact Assessment and Decision Making, IAHS Publication 295, pp. 131-138.

Abstract

The mountainous region of the Upper Indus Basin is a critical source of water for Pakistan. Most flow in the upper Indus is derived from melting snow and glaciers and summer runoff is strongly correlated to winter precipitation and summer temperature, though links may operate in opposing directions in glacier-fed and snow-fed hydrological regimes. From 1961 to 1999 there were significant increases in winter, summer and annual precipitation and significant warming occurred in winter whilst summer showed a cooling trend. These trends will impact upon water resource availability. Relationships between climatic variability and large-scale climatic processes may be used to increase forecasting lag time for water resources.