Archer, D.R. and Fowler, H.J. 2004. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 8(1), 47-61.
Abstract
Most of the flow in the River Indus from its upper mountain basin is derived from melting snow and glaciers. Climatic variability and change of both precipitation and energy inputs will therefore have an effect on rural livelihoods at both a local and a regional scale through effects on summer runoff in the River Indus. Spatial variation in precipitation is investigated by correlation and regression analysis of long-period records. This shows that there is a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation at stations over the entire region, which explains why a single valley-floor precipitation station can be used for practical forecasting of summer runoff in some basins. In contrast, spatial relationships in seasonal precipitation are weaker during summer and sometimes significantly negative between stations north and south of the Himalayan divide. Although analysis of precipitation time series shows no significant trend in long datasets commencing in 1895, there are statistically significant increases in winter, summer and annual precipitation over the period 1961 to 1999 at several stations. Preliminary analysis has identified significant positive correlation between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter precipitation in the Karakoram and negative correlation between NAO and summer rainfall at some stations.