ACE1037:  IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE?

KEY FACTORS:
  1. UK BREXIT
  2. US UNDER TRUMP PRESIDENCY
  3. GLOBAL GROWTH & CAPITAL/FINANCE MARKETS PERFORMANCE
UK BREXIT:
A recent and relatively authorative academic survey of the issues raised by Brexit can be found in the latest issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, March 2017.
An ESRC funded initiative:  The UK in a Changing Europe (at Kings College, London), "promotes rigorous, high-quality and independent research into the complex and ever changing relationship between the UK and the European Union (EU). It provides an authoritative, non-partisan and impartial reference point for those looking for information, insights and analysis about UK-EU relations that stands aside from the politics surrounding the debate."
e.g. (Prof. Tim Bale, QMU, (on a survey of MP's views, Feb. 2017): "Brexit has divided parliamentary opinion across a range of issues. The divide is not just between those who see the glass half full or half empty; it’s a real divide between panglossians and pessimists"
and "Four Economic Tests of a succesul Brexit"
  1. Will we be better off?
  2. Will the UK be a fairer society?
  3. Will the UK be a more open economy & society?
  4. Will UK citizens have more democratic control?
Meanwhile, a recent survey of the general public confirms the suspicion that the Referendum was 52/48 in favour of the apparently impossible - an end to free movement with continued free trade (single market) (FT. 21/01/17) - having our cake and eating it - the full survey by What the UK Thinks: EU.
The Economist (21.01.17) highlights the potential problems (Doing Brexit the hard way), and see, also, the paper's Brexit page. See, also, the FT's Brexit Page  (including the timetable for the Article 50 negotiations).  Open Europe's leaked draft of the EU's opening negotiating position.
The UK leaving bill
Martin Wolf's Five Challenges (FT),  John Kerr's view (FT, ex. EU/FCO diplomat),  IPPR's suggested megotiation strategy,
What next for Sterling?
What trade deals are possible? see, especially, the UK Trade Policy Observatory, and their briefing papers.


A TRUMPED US
Three major 'proposals' on the Trump administration's agenda are particularly worrying for the world economy:
  1. the emphasis on 'fair' trade (interpreted as protectionist) - illustrated by the withdrawl of the US from the Trans Pacific Partnership, the proposal for a "Border adjustment tax (BAT)"- Under which, companies would no longer deduct the cost of imported goods from their taxable profits, while exports would not be taxable -, renegotiation of NAFTA.
  2. treatment of climate change as a 'Chinese hoax' and withdrawl from the Paris agreement.
  3. threatened reform (de-regulation) of the finance sector.

GLOBAL GROWTH
For an assessment of the challenges facing World Agriculture, see FAO Future of Food and Agriculture 2017, (overview), or here for the full report
For macro global growth propsects, see IMF, World Bank, Conference Board, OECD and the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects report.
What next - the end of capitalism? Or simply an evolution? or is it the 1930s all over again?

The future is up to you - good luck with it, and sorry for leaving such a mess.

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