We will concentrate on the simplest economy we can think of: one which is only interested in producing and consuming two goods (food (+fibre); clothes (+ shelter)). These two goods, which can be thought of composites as indicated, comprise all the necessities of life, and are all this simple economy produces, or, for the present, wants to produce. It is self contained and self-sufficient as a whole. Our economy is a self-contained collection of producers and consumers - everyone is either one or both. In other words, it can be considered as a Household.
Notice - we are talking of an economy here - which
might
be the world, a country, or a region, or a community or locality
or village, or
whatever.
In the limit, such an economy could be as small as a self-sufficient,
single
and subsistence household. It doesn't matter how big or small it
is. All that matters - for the moment - is that it is
self-contained.
We will come to what can happen when two such economies meet and trade
with each other below. For the present, we just consider the
logic
of this single and simple economy as separate and self contained
entity. And, we are only considering this community as an
economy, not (yet) as a society, or a political entity.
How does our simple economy organise itself?
Consider the production
possibilities
(the supply side) and the consumption preferences (the demand
side)
for the two goods (which makes up the totality of our simple
economy). We are going to draw a diagram, which allows us to
picture the economy, and also allows us to determine certain logical
properties of the choices our economy makes.
The diagram we will use relates production and consumption of one good (food (and fibre)) to the production and consumption of the other (clothes (and shelter)). So we measure (illustrate) quantities of each good on the two axes: quantity of clothes on the vertical axis and food on the horizontal axis - though it could just as easily be the other way round, it doesn't matter. Get a bit of paper and draw this diagram for yourselves now. Then read the following and trace the argument (logic) out on your diagram as you follow it through.
The supply side:
Consider the production or supply side first. What options does our economy have? To use all available production factors (land and labour) to produce food; or to use all its factors to produce clothes; or to produce some combination of the two goods. And, because our citizens are sensible, they will organise themselves to produce as much as possible of each good. What? What about leisure and living? Don't they take time and effort? Yes, so our production possibility set will represent the quantities of the two goods our citizens are prepared to, are willing to produce, given that any production involves use of scarce (limited) time and effort, for which there are competing leisure (consumption) and recuperation (investment - see below) demands
So, there is some upper limit to the amount (quantity) of each good our citizens are prepared to produce in this economy. We can mark these two upper limits (F* and C*) on each of the axes of our diagram of the economy. Producing F* means that will not produce any C at all, so quantity of C is zero when Food production is at F*, and vice versa. OK?
But neither of these extremes is likely to be a sensible choice for our people - they are much more likely to choose a combination of the two goods. What are the production possibilities for mixtures of the two goods? Suppose we start with the economy producing all food and no clothes (at point F*on the horizontal axis), and now ask ourselves how much clothing this economy could produce if it diverted some of its resources from food to clothes production. How much food production would have to be given up to produce the first few units of clothes? Probably not very much, since some factors of production (land and labour etc.) are not very good for food production and would be much better at producing clothes. Furthermore, some of our people would prefer to make clothes than produce food, so are likely to be better at producing clothes than food.
So, to begin with, moving from F* upwards and to the left to produce more clothes and less food, our economy could gain quite a lot of clothes without having to give up much food production. Eventually, though, as we progressively cut back on food production in order to produce more clothes, we will find that we are having to give up more and more food for each extra unit of clothing production - as the extra resources we need to produce clothes are progressively better at producing food than clothes. Eventually, we would wind up producing all clothes and no food - at point C*.
So,
our
production possibility relationship will be curved between F* and
C*.
Make sure you follow this logic and the representation of it as the production
possibility frontier (PPF) on the diagram . This
should
be what you got on your own diagram as you followed the argument
through.
If you didn't, why not? Notice, it is frontier because
this
curve represents the maximum possible combinations of food and clothes
that our citizens are willing to produce, given the land, skills,
technologies
and work preferences they have.
Notice, too, what this PPF means. Suppose we start at point C* and then ask how many clothes we have to give up to produce some food. Move along the PPF, and watch how much extra food we get as we give up limited quantities of clothes. At first, we only have to give up a little clothes for a lot of food - the slope of the PPF is quite flat. In other words, the supply price (cost) of more food in terms of clothes given up (the opportunity cost, which here is the total cost of food production) is low.
But, as we progress down the PPF, the real cost of food (its cost relative to everything else in the economy, which in our case is clothes) increases - the slope of the PPF gets steeper. The cost of food production increases the more food we try and produce - the real supply curve for food slopes upwards.
Repeat this argument (logic) for the price of clothes in terms of food - you will get the same answer - the real supply curve of clothes also slopes upwards: the more we want to produce, the higher the cost in terms of foregone food production - the higher the real (relative) cost of clothes.
PPF Conclusions:
The demand side:
What about the consumption or demand side? Now we have to think about how to represent consumer choices about how much of each (food and clothes) they would like to have and enjoy. Go back to your paper diagram. Start with some mix of the two which represents one particular (and observable) choice (F1 of food and C1 of clothes) - a point (x) which will be in the middle of our diagram somewhere - it doesn't really matter exactly where. If we imagine that we are observing this simple economy,they will have already made a choice about this, and we will see it in their output/activity mix. But, if you are drawing this on the diagram with the PPF on it (which you should now have labelled), you had better put your x somewhere on this frontier, hadn't you? Why?
Otherwise you will be trying to consume mixes of the two goods you cannot possibly produce (x lies outside the PPF). Or you will be wasting resources - x lies inside the PPF, which means leaving people and land unemployed when they could be working, and working at something they would like to do, and earning a living, and producing something we want, and thus earning respect.
So, put your x on the PPF - anywhere else is daft, (or, as economists say, inefficient), so we would not expect people to choose it, unless they are so stupid as not to be human. This point x represents the one the people in our simple economy choose for themselves - it is the one we would observe them at, if we could find this simple economy to look at.
Now ask yourself how the consumers in the economy might judge other combinations or mixes of the two goods that they might have chosen instead of x (F1 and C1)? How might they compare other possible points on this diagram with x?
Within reason, more of each good would typically be considered preferable to less of each of the two goods, especially as we have included capital in each, - right? So we can identify the north east quadrant (all points above and to the right of point x) as a preferred set or zone of possible consumption mixes or 'baskets' of goods. Draw this zone on your diagram now. And the south west quadrant (all points or good combinations consisting of less and F1 food and C1 clothes) will be considered inferior choices or combinations for our consumer population. Otherwise they would have chosen one of the points in this zone, and they did not. Shade in this inferior zone in now.
So, somewhere in the top left (north west) and bottom right (south east) quadrants will lie a boundary which separates the preferred set of consumption mixes from the inferior set, compared with our initial combination x. There will be a separation between mixes which are preferred and mixes of goods which are considered inferior - a separation zone or boundary along which our citizens cannot make up their minds about which mix is better and which worse - they are, in effect, indifferent between any of the mixes defined by this boundary or indiference zone.
This boundary will (has to) slope downwards and to the right, passing through our reference point, x. So, draw such a boundary on your diagram.
You have just drawn what economists call an indifference curve (or boundary) (let's label it I2, we'll see why in a minute) which indicates all those combinations of food and clothes which the consumers cannot judge to either worse or better than the one they chose initially (x) - they are indifferent between any of the combinations which lie on this boundary or curve. So, you can now extend the shading of both the preferred zone and the inferior zone up to this boundary. Got that? If not, go back and re-read the logic and re-draw your own diagram.
You
should
have got (most of) this diagram. ( I have left off the production
possibility frontier, to make it clearer.) But you didn't get
three
curves, you only got I2. So what are the other curves?
Well,
what we are drawing here is a map of consumer
preferences.
The further north east we go this map, the more preferable the bundles
of goods become (within reason) - bundles to the north east of x have a
higher value to
the consumers than bundles to the south west. The indifference
curve
we have drawn is a contour line on this preference "hill" - a line
joining
together all those points (bundles of the two goods) which are
considered
of equal value by the consumers, the citizens of our economy. So
there are as many other contour lines as we care to draw on this
preference
map. I have just drawn in two others, of lower value than I2, so
I have labeled them I1 and Io respectively.
Now go back to point x. Ask yourself how much food our citizens would be willing to give up in exchange for a little more clothes - move upwards and to the left of point x along the indifference curve, I2.
Why along the curve? Because, if we move upwards and to the right of this curve, we are assuming that our consumers consider themselves to have suddenly become richer. How come? Because they can get to a preferred mix of both goods anywhere above and to the right of I2 - (I2 marks the boundary between the preferred set of goods and the set considered inferior.) They choose x - because they could not get any mix of goods above and to the right (outside) I2. If they could have, they would have, and x would be in a different place than we supposed. [This sort of analysis is known, in the textbooks as revealed preference theory for this reason - the choices people actually make reveal their preferences for what they want, and about how much effort they are prepared to put in to get it]
Indifference Curve Conclusions:
An indifference curve also shows a constant real income level for our economy, where income is now defined as command over consumption (and investment) mixes ("demand income"), rather than as the returns from production. Note, again, that this is not a distinction that the textbooks identify. Why not? The answer takes us into some even deeper conceptual water than we are already in, and I don't think is necessary here, but you can follow it if you like. It may help you in potential arguments with others who have followed textbook courses in this subject.
So, if we want to know how much food our consumers will be prepared to give up (pay) for an additional quantity of clothes, we had better hold their demand incomes constant - otherwise we will confuse ourselves about why they are willing to pay more or less for more clothes. So we move up the indifference curve I2. As we do so, what do we see? That our consumers are willing to give up progressively less and less food for more and more clothes. The indifference curve gets steeper. The more clothes they want, the less food they are prepared to trade (pay) for them, the demand curve for clothes is downward sloping.
Alternatively, move down the indifference curve from point x. The consumers are willing to give up less and less clothes for more and more food. The indifference curve gets flatter. The more food they want the lower the price in terms of clothes (the real price) they are prepared to pay. The demand curve for food is downward sloping.
The slope of the Indifference Curve shows the real demand prices (the prices consumers are willing to pay) for the two goods. These are indeed real prices - each is priced relative to the other (which is all there is in this economy).
General Market equilibrium: the PPF meets the Indifference Curve. (or the lecturer meets the class?). We have now isolated the fundamental dilemma for our simple economy: how can we reconcile the production value of goods, as the things our people are prepared to do for others in return for income or payment, represented by the PPF, with the consumption value of goods, as the values people attach to consuming or having the goods for themselves, represented by the indifference curve?
Economics textbooks traditionally start with the partial answer to this question - the intersection of supply and demand curves in a single-good market. As the markets (the possible trade-offs) for each of the two goods settle down to their equilibrium positions, each will settle on a particular quantity and a particular price - at which the supply cost equals the demand price (where the supply curve and demand curve intersect). Where will this equilibrium quantity mix (of food and clothes) be on our production possibility frontier (PPF) and consumer preference map (indifference curve map) diagram? What combinations (quantities) of the two goods would you expect this single simple economy to choose? Think, before you read on.
Answer: first, it has to be a mix that our citizens are willing to
produce
- so the combination has to lie somewhere on the PPF. But where?
Where the consumers think they are getting the best value from their
consumption
- i.e. as high up the preference map as possible - on the highest
possible indifference contour or curve. Which is a single unique
point (X) as a combination of C1 clothes and F1 food. This
economy,
or community, cannot do better than this on its own. At this point, and only at this point, the
production value of each of the goods (their supply prices) are equal
to the consumption (demand or use) value of each of these goods (their
demand prices) - exactly what the traditional market diagrams
show, onlyhere for all possible markets.
We should expect a sensible, coherent and communicative, and cooperative community to come up with this, given time and no interference from anywhere else. This is how we would expect people to learn to behave, if left to themselves. What? No, you wouldn't expect this? They will fight and bicker? They will steal and thieve? They will behave like children, then? They won't grow up and be sensible and wise? Why not, if we leave them alone, wouldn't we expect them to grow up and learn from their mistakes and work out how to do things better? Isn't this what humans do, if we leave them alone? If they don't, they will wipe each other out. These people, in case you hadn't noticed, are our ancestors - so they didn't wipe themselves out.
OK,
so I
have altered the shape of the PPF here - the reason will become obvious
in a minute. For the present, just notice that this different
shape
reflects the capacity of the community, and its willingness to work at
these particular activities - this one is better at producing clothes
than
food compared to the previous one. Why? because it has more
labour and less land, perhaps, and clothing (and shelter) production is
more labour intensive and less land intensive than food and fibre
production. Or because theylive in colder climates, and have discovered
that not only is it more difficult to produce food in such a climate,
but also that they don't need asmuch food if they keep themselves
warmer.
At this unique point, this single optimum combination of food and clothes, the indifference curve and the PPF will be tangential to each other - they will have the same slopes. In other words, at this point, the rate at which consumers are willing to give up one good in terms of the other (the slope of the indifference curve), which is the consumer demand price for each good, will equal the rate at which it is possible to supply one good in terms of the other - the supply cost of each good - the slope of the PPF. At this point, and this point alone, the production value of the two goods will equal the consumption value.
What are these rates? They are the real (relative) prices of each good in terms of the other. The supply prices are equal to the demand prices at this general equilibrium in our two markets. And the price ratio of one good in terms of the other is the slope of the tangent - the ratio of C0 to F0 in the diagram opposite - the supply price ratio of the slope of the PPF equals the demand price ratio of the indifference curve. So, this country's markets will settle down at a general equilibrium of producing and consuming at point X, = C1 of clothes and F1 of food.
General Equilibrium (GE) Conclusions:
This conclusion now demonstrates the second
key insight of economics - specialisation (in production) only
makes sense if the products are traded
between producers and consumers, so that needs (demands) can be most
effectively met from the sensibly specialised
production activities. This picture of general
equilibrium requires
specialisation (according to comparative advantage) and trade (exchange
or gift).
The Case for Markets and free trade?
However, GE does NOT necessarily require explicit markets to achieve
this equilibrium. As it stands, this theoretical discussion of
the implications of sensible societies determining how to make
the best use of available resources (assets) does not require any
formal markets, and does not rely on money - it could work with barter,
and it could (and obviously did in the past) work through patronage,
dictatorship, or simple community action. Although much of the outline
explanation provided above has been in terms of real prices (the price
of one good in terms of the other, or the rate at which one can be
exchanged for another, either in production or in consumption), this
does not mean anything more than the rate of barter exchange, where
goods are physically exchanged for each other. Only in the most
primitive sense can such barter exchanges be considered as genuine
markets. The prices referred to above can be, and often are in
so-called primitive societies, implict rather than explicit.
Are markets the only way of achieving this optimum allocation of resources and goods? Good question. See here for a discussion of this important question.
Where did money disappear to, in this simple economy? I thought economics was about money - and knows the price of everything and the value of nothing? Yet we have not actually mentioned money at all. Another good question. See here for an answer.Simply making these points highlights the
obvious difficulties of organising societies so as to be as effective
and efficient as possible without organised and trustworthy markets. In
any real society, GE implies some highly enlightened organisation,
achieved in the first instance no doubt by considerable trial and error
(which, of course, we are still making).
Nevertheless, Markets in principle can achieve the best of all possible worlds, in the real world in which we live. This is a fact of logic as well as a consequence of our socio-economic evolution, not just an assertion or an assumption. It is true in principle and by demonstration of our history. As humans, we are uniquely capable of turning our principles into practice (or, more usually, of developing best practices, and then working out why the best practice is the best practice, and trying to make it even better) - that is what we do that makes us different from the animals. If the real world does not live up to this principle in its practice, then we will work to understand why, and then work to fix it. This is science and reason. Anything else is idle speculation or fantasy. Simple, isn't it? Tough, isn't it? Is this why you don't like economics?
Implication:
The market system rewards the owners of the factors of production
- those who have the most land, the most capital and the labour skills
best fitted, most well matched to the wants of society (the consumer)
will
earn the most production income, and thus get to exercise the most
money
votes about what is produced. If you (land, labour,
capital,
or management) are useless, you won't get paid in this system, and you
won't get the chance to exercise your consumption income. To him that
hath
shall be given - from those who are most able, but not
(necessarily)
to those who are considered most deserving (except in the most happy
(and fictitious) of societies - we still have a lot to learn, but then
we haven't been practicing for very long in the wider scheme of the
universe). Because markets tend to evolve into capitalism - the separation of
ownership and control of the means of production (especially physical
capital and land) from the people involved in their use, and
trade (exchange) of these assets between people, the economic system
can result in the survival of the richest, rather than the survival of
the fittest - so long as the poor are sufficiently content (or
cowed) to accept their lot without social revolution or exit
(migration).
So we would also expect our sensible human community to show some
humanity
and seek to soften the harsh realities of natural selection (since that
is what this system really is). Our community will also develop governance
and redistribution (care) systems alongside its
market
systems. Why? Because, some form of government is an essential
complement
to this trading system - the long
arm of the law is necessarily
attached
to Adam Smith's invisible hand of the market - to outlaw theft,
enforce
contracts and protect property rights (whether these are common rights
or private rights). Once in place, such governments will also
become
responsible for managing the natural
selection of the market -
including
acting as judge to redistribute losses and gains, and protect or
support
the less well off. The humane economy will naturally develop
gifts
from those who have to those who have not, which will be outside the
system
of specialisation and exchange portrayed here. But not independent of
it, since the
capacity
to give depends on the resources one can accumulate and incomes one can
generate.
We have not concentrated on either the sociology or the politics of
our economy, our community, here - because this is the economic basis
of trade and exchange.
But it is nonsense to pretend that these aspects of humanity do not
exist,
or that economics is fundamentally different and separated from
them.
They have to fit, and the way they fit is through the governance (or
management,
if you prefer) of the market system.
If they don't get these aspects right as well, then their markets
cannot work either.
Finally, in this session - the benefits
of Trade.
Now, at last, we are in a position to look at the benefits from
trade.
Suppose, now, we have another community (or region, or tribe, or
country, if you
prefer).
This second country - country 2 - is different from country
1. The PPF for country 2 shows
that the country is better at food production and not so good at
clothing
production as country 1. The preference maps are shown here as
identical
for
the two countries, but they do not need to be. On its own, then,
country 2 would choose to
produce
and consume C2 clothes and F2 food, at a real price ratio of C3/F3.
Now suppose you are a trader. You have an opportunity to do business between these two communties (labeled countries here). What are you going to do? Buy clothes where they are cheap and sell them where they are expensive, and the same thing for food. And where is food cheap? In country 2 - you don't have to pay as much in clothes in country 2 as you do in country 1. And clothes are cheap in country 1. So there is money to be made shipping food from country 2 to 1 and clothes from 1 to 2 - right? Just think about the meaning of the slopes of the "price lines" in each country - they show the price of one good in terms of the other.
And what happens when we start to trade - exporting food from 2 to 1 and clothes from 1 to 2? The price of food will rise in country 2 (the food exporter), and thus the price of clothes will fall in 2. Country 2's "price line" (C3 to F3) will get steeper. The opposite will happen in country 1 - the line C0 - F0 will get flatter.
And what will limit this process of price changes as a consequence of trade between to two countries? The free trade or "world price" will be the same in each country - the slopes of the price lines will be the same, flatter than 1's and steeper than 2's (ignoring the costs of the exchange or trade) The trading price line will lie between the price lines of the two countries (or regions), as in the figure below (Ce - Fe). I have omitted the previous no-trade price lines from these diagrams, to make them clearer. But you should be able to re-draw these for yourselves.
So what? At this price ratio, country 1's optimum consumption point is now C1c of clothes and C1f of food. This is where the trade price line touches the highest possible indifference curve. A higher indifference curve than it can possibly get to without trade - a higher consumer or demand income - so it is definitely better off with trade.
How does it manage to consume this amount of food (which is more than it could possibly produce itself in this diagram - C1f lies outside the PPF)? Answer - it imports food, and pays for these imports with exports of clothes.
How much food and clothes would it pay country 1 to produce?
Where
the trade price line is the same slope as (lies tangential to) the PPF
- since the slope of the PPF shows the supply price ratio of the two
goods
- the price ratio which matches the opportunity costs of producing each
of the goods. So, country 1 produces P1c of clothes, and P1f of
food,
and trades (P1c - C1c) clothes for (C1f - P1f) food, which it can do
along the trade price line.
The exports [production minus consumption] of clothes pays for the imports (consumption minus production) of food, at the trading price ratio between the two products. And country 1 is clearly better off with trade than without it, since it can now consume above (beyond) the limits of its production possibilities. The same arguments apply to country 2. Follow them through for country 2 for yourselves.
Conclusions from Trade:
If the rate at which the two outputs can be traded for each other in the market place is represented by the trade price line Z, (which indicates one of the more important links with the outside world), then the appropriate (economically efficient) production mix for the region is Q*1; Q*2 - which will define the economic structure and income earning ability of the region, and will be the outcome expected by the operation of an effectively competitive market place.
Notice - if the capital asset base of this region is increased, then the constraint lines shift outwards from the origin - the productive capacity or feasible set of outputs for the region is increased. Notice, too, that we could also include measures of the other two major forms of capital (spatial and social), and could also further subdivide these major forms into their componant parts (with differing relative capacities in the production of the two goods (or services), which would tend to make the PPF (the Feasible region) even more convex to the origin (bowed outwards from the intersection of the axes). We could also consider a greater number of outputs - though drawing the diagram would then become even more messy. However, if we can draw the diagram, we can also express these relationships mathmatically, and thus remove the difficulties imposed by a two dimensional representation of the problem as a diagram.
One obvious problem with this representation of the capacity or capability of a region or community is that the production systems available to transform the capital assets (combined with appropriate inputs) into the potential products or outputs is not uniform - the representation of the use of capital assets to produce outputs 1 and 2 in this figure as if they could be trasferred between uses at a uniform rate (the constraints as straight lines) is a gross simplification. However, this is not a serious problem.
Figure
2: Consider the simplest relaxation of this initial
assumption
- that there are at least two different ways of producing a single
output
(Process 1 and Process 2). Process 1 uses more of factor A
(capital
type A) than factor B in producing output 1, while Process 2 uses more
of B than A. If you like, Process 1 is the capital intensive
production
system, and 2 is the labour intensive alternative. The choice of
which process is the most appropriate (most efficient) depends on the
alternative
uses possible for each of the factors - what they could earn doing
something
else instead of producing output 1 (their opportunity costs). If
these opportunity costs are as represented by the ratio of values
(prices)
as price ratio x, then process 1 will be the most efficient use
of these factors for output 1. If the price ratio is y,
then
the most appropriate (efficient) process is process 2.
Furthermore, we can think of subdividing our major capital (factor) classes into those biits which are more suitable for the production of one good or service rather than another - output specific factor classes - which would introduce more constraints on the first of these two figures. In the limit - a particular capital class which is only suitable for the production of one good, and completely useless for the production of another, makes the relevant constraint line in Figure 1 either vertical or horizontal (depending on which is the relevant output).
These conceptual relationships can be explicitly modelled using linear programming techniques, which replicate this logic for many outputs and many different factors (capital classes) and processes.
The fact that many of the particular ouputs and capitals relevant to the problems of rural development and sustainable resource use are difficult to measure accurately, and that the processes used to produce the relevant outputs are not well known or understood can be viewed from two rather different perspectives:
Comments or suggestions
to DRH