Ekström, M., Jones, P.D., Fowler, H.J., Lenderink, G., Buishand, A. and Conway, D. 2007. Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project. 1: Projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11(3), 1069-1083.



Climate data necessary for studies assessing the risk to various hydrologic and hydraulic systems by climate change within SWURVE (Sustainable Water: Uncertainty, Risk and Vulnerability in Europe), was obtained from the regional climate model HadRM3H, developed at the Hadley Centre at the UK Meteorological Office. This paper gives some background to HadRM3H; it also presents anomaly maps of the projected future changes in European temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (the third variable was estimated using a variant of the Penman formula).

The future simulations of temperature and rainfall, following the SRES A2 emission scenario, suggest that the majority of Europe will experience future warming in all seasons with heavier precipitation during winter in much of western Europe (with the exception of central and northern parts of the Scandinavian mountains) and drier summers in most parts of western and central Europe (except for the northwest and the eastern part of the Baltic Sea). Particularly large temperature anomalies (> 6 °C) are projected for northeast Europe in winter and for southern Europe and Asia Minor during summer.

The projected PET displayed very large increases during summer for a region stretching from southern France to Russia. The unrealistically large values could be the result of an enhanced hydrological cycle in HadRM3H, affecting several of the input parameters to the PET calculation. To avoid problems with hydrological modelling schemes, PET was re-calculated, this time using an empirical relationship derived from observational values of temperature and PET. 

More related work...