Fowler, H.J. and Kilsby, C.G. 2003. Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(13), 1720, doi:10.1029/2003GL017327.
Abstract
Future projections from climate models and recent observations show a worldwide increase in both the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, coinciding with widespread flooding and landslides in Europe. It is estimated, using regional frequency analysis, that the magnitude of extreme rainfall has increased two-fold over parts of the UK since the 1960s. Intensities previously experienced, on average, every 25 years now occur at 6 year intervals; a consequence of both increased event frequency and changes in seasonality. These climatic changes may be explained by persistent atmospheric circulation anomalies and have huge economic and social implications in terms of increased flooding.